Published: November 27, 2009 01:43 am      

This season should be bright, no matter what economists say

It is finally here — the day that value shoppers and economists alike have been waiting for. Economists have been crunching the numbers. Shoppers have been pouring over the inserts and circulars stuffed in this newspaper over the past couple of days. In fact, many of those shoppers probably were out the door and heading off to the stores before this newspaper even hit the doorstep.

It’s Black Friday.

It was given the name “Black” Friday, traditionally, because it is the one day that retail stores are said to come out of the red and into the black within their ledgers. It represents the beginning of the time when stores begin to post profits — the beginning of the holiday shopping season.

Of course, traditions change and modify. Now Black Friday is, for the shoppers, the best chance to get door-buster deals on the hottests toys and gadgets of the Christmas season. Stores seem to open earlier and earlier. In fact, some experimented with actual Thanksgiving Day shopping hours and deals. And then there is, of course, Cyber Monday — the Monday after Thanksgiving when online stores post exclusive deals on hot merchandise.

Economists are watching today with a microscope — or, rather, an abacus — to see how the 2009 Christmas shopping season will fare. You see, this weekend alone is expected to generate at least 10 percent of holiday sales. A sluggish economy, escalating unemployment rates nationwide and a dropping consumer confidence index has made economists predict that the average American family is expected to spend a lot less this season.

In fact, the National Retail Federation reports that consumer spending this Christmas will average to about $682.74, down 3.2 percent from last year's $705.01. That may not mean many dollars on average, but think about the national retail stores who will have to cope with $23 fewer dollars from each one of their customers.

The federation is also reporting that, for the second year in a row, total retail sales will decline by 1 percent — as opposed to the past decade or so, which saw at least 3 percent growth from December to December.

Having said all that, let’s keep a couple things in mind as we all head out to the stores to buy the perfect gift for the loved ones in our lives.

Local stores suffer the same kind of losses during recessions as big chain stores — maybe even more so. 2009 might be the year to make it a point to support local businesses and shops during the holiday season. Our area and county have not been as hard hit as the rest of the state and certainly isn’t as bad off as the rest of the nation. Let’s keep it that way by keeping local dollars here.

The second thought is that the holiday season shouldn’t only be about finding the best deal on the best gift. Christmas means a whole heck of a lot more than that. The spirit of the season cannot be measured by the National Retail Federation, nor should families who have to cut, on average, $23 from their holiday spending budgets feel glum about one less present under the tree.

This season should be bright, no matter what the economists say. You can’t put a profit margin on love, spirit and togetherness.