By Tom Breen
Associated Press Writer
CHARLESTON
May 08, 2008 01:06 am
—
West Virginia’s primary next week offers Hillary Rodham Clinton some of the friendliest terrain yet in her drawn-out struggle with Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination as she fights to keep her candidacy alive.
The state looks a lot like the America of a bygone era: overwhelmingly white, largely rural, and proudly blue-collar.
That presents a challenge for Obama, seeking to become the nation’s first black president, who is within inches of grasping the nomination. After a big win in North Carolina and a near-miss in Indiana primaries on Tuesday, Obama is anxious for an opportunity to deliver Clinton a knockout blow.
But West Virginia, which is next up on May 13, is more likely to infuse Clinton with desperately needed oxygen.
Obama’s strengths are among black voters and college-educated voters, but only 3.3 percent of West Virginians are black and only 16. 5 percent of residents have bachelor’s degrees, more than 10 percentage points below the national average, U.S. Census figures show.
For Clinton, the state is nearly ideal: She has consistently outperformed Obama among white, older and blue-collar voters in competitive primaries.
Exit polling in the 30 Democratic primaries in which both candidates competed shows whites favoring Clinton over Obama 55 percent to 40 percent, voters over age 65 favoring her 59 percent to 36 percent, and rural voters favoring her 52 percent to 42 percent.
West Virginia’s median age of 40.7 is four years older than the national median, more than nine in 10 residents are white and the median family income is roughly $12,500 below the national median of about $58,500.
Clinton has also scored big wins in neighboring Pennsylvania and Ohio, which share many similarities with West Virginia.
“Demographically, it’s Clinton’s primary to lose,” said Robert Rupp, a political scientist at West Virginia Wesleyan College in Buckhannon.
Not surprisingly, West Virginia was Clinton’s first stop as she plunged back into campaigning Wednesday, touting her proposals for easing the pain of the national economic downturn at a rally with voters in Sheperdstown.
Even some Obama supporters despair of their candidate’s ability to win those voters over.
“I don’t think he can overcome that,” said Pancho Morris of Charleston. “I work out at the gym with a bunch of older people, and it’s probably running 10 to 2 against Obama.”
Obama, though, may benefit from a new wrinkle for state Democrats — the first-ever open primary, Rupp said.
There are roughly 154,000 voters in the state with no party affiliation, compared to more than 660,000 Democrats and about 348,000 Republicans. Since the 2006 elections, roughly 19,000 people have registered as independents, double the number of new Democrats and triple the number of new Republicans.
For the first time this year, those independents will be able to vote in either party primary. Exit polls show Obama with a 54 percent to 40 percent advantage over Clinton among self-described independents.
Clinton does better than Obama among Democrats, 50 percent to 47 percent.
There are 39 delegates at stake in West Virginia that both candidates dearly want to claim. Obama is less than 200 delegates away from the 2,025 delegate needed to clinch the nomination. Clinton lags more than 150 delegates behind Obama.
The last time West Virginia played a critical role in a Democratic primary was when John F. Kennedy’s 1960 victory established that an urban Roman Catholic could prevail in a rural Protestant environment.
Obama has been called a Kennedyesque candidate, generating celebrity-like excitement during his visit in March to West Virginia, when the Illinois senator addressed overflow crowds in Charleston and Beckley.
“That personal appeal and magnetism is what attracted people to Kennedy,” said Bob Nelson, a former Huntington mayor who, as a college student, worked on Kennedy’s campaign in 1960. “That’s what you see with Obama, the way people are excited about him.”
But while Kennedy contended with bias against his religious faith, Obama’s challenge in overcoming racial animosity may be steeper.
The wide circulation on the Internet and cable television of sermons harshly critical of the U.S. government and racism by Obama’s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, brought hints of that to the surface.
“I can’t believe he went to that church for 20 years without hearing some of that,” Alice Peters, a St. Albans resident, said of Obama. “I don’t think you’d go to many white churches and find that kind of thing.”
For Clinton, the challenge in West Virginia is a political culture that overwhelmingly elects men to high public office. There are currently two women — State Supreme Court Justice Robin Davis and Secretary of State Betty Ireland — who occupy statewide office, out of 11 such positions. The state’s five-member congressional delegation includes one woman, Republican Shelley Moore Capito.
There are 19 women and three blacks in the state’s 134-member Legislature.
Obama has won endorsements from Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Rep. Nick Rahall, who have addressed rallies and made appearances on his behalf. The state’s other top Democrats — including Gov. Joe Manchin and Sen. Robert C. Byrd — have remained neutral. Some party officials, including three superdelegates, have endorsed Clinton, but they aren’t well-known public figures.
Both campaigns have devoted resources to the state, with Obama opening eight offices and Clinton opening four.
“She has experience in Washington, she knows how to work in that town,” said Joyce Sharp of Ripley, who came to Clinton’s rally in Charleston earlier this spring. “This primary is just going to show the world how much support she has here.”
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